Tendency and seasonality of suicide in Chihuahua, México. A retrospective analysis from 2008 to 2018

Montserrat Fernández-López, Rosa Ivonne Hernández-Montes, Sofía Álvarez Reza, Luis Alberto Flores-Olivares

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17711/SM.0185-3325.2021.008

Abstract


Introduction. Suicide has shown an international and national trend to increase, mainly in young people, together with seasonal behavior associated with high temperatures. Although Chihuahua saw the highest number of suicides and suicide attempts in 2016, there are no studies documenting their seasonal and trend behavior.

Objective. This study sought to analyze the trend and seasonality of completed suicides in the state of Chihuahua from 2008 to 2018.

Method. The number of deaths from intentionally self-inflicted injuries was obtained from INEGI. The absolute suicide rate was estimated, and a time series model applied to identify its trend and seasonality. In addition, environmental temperature was used as a predictor variable for the number of suicides through a Poisson model.

Results. A trend was found in the completed suicide rate from 2008 to 2018 in men and women, both separately and together (stationary R2 .73, .66 and .69, respectively), together with seasonality in both sexes (p < .002), with the highest figures being recorded in June and July. An increase of 1,028 suicides was found for every 1°C rise in temperature. In the 10-24 and 25-34 age groups, a linear increase in the suicide rate was observed during the period studied (R² > .7, p = .001).

Discussion and conclusion. Between 2008 and 2018, the suicide rate increased in the state of Chihuahua, mainly among those aged between 10 and 34. Moreover, suicide rates tend to increase during the months of June and July because of temperature.

Keywords


Mental health; suicide; time series; epidemiology

Full Text:

HTML PDF EPUB

References


doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2010.05.030

Bachmann, S. (2018). Epidemiology of suicide and the psychiatric perspective. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(7), 1425. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15071425

Borges, G., Orozco, R., Benjet, C., & Medina-Mora, M. (2010). Suicidio y conductas suicidas en México: retrospectiva y situación actual. Salud Pública de México, 52(4), 292-304.

Borges, G., Orozco, R., Villatoro, J., Medina-Mora, M. E., Fleiz, C., & Díaz-Salazar, J. (2019). Suicide ideation and behavior in Mexico: Encodat 2016. Salud Pública de México, 61(1), 6-15. doi: 10.21149/9351

Borges, G., Rosovsky, H., Caballero, M. A., & Gómez Castro, C. (2014). Evolución reciente del suicidio en México: 1970-1991. Available at https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=es&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Evoluci%C3%B3n+reciente+del+suicidio+en+M%C3%A9xico%3A+1970-1991.&btnG=

Burke, M., González, F., Baylis, P., Heft-Neal, S., Baysan, C., Basu, S., & Hsiang, S. (2018). Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Nature Climate Change, 8(8), 723-729. doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x

Carleton, T. A. (2017). Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(33), 8746-8751. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1701354114

Casas, L., Cox, B., Bauwelinck, M., Nemery, B., Deboosere, P., & Nawrot, T. S. (2017). Does air pollution trigger suicide? A case-crossover analysis of suicide deaths over the life span. European Journal of Epidemiology, 32(11), 973-981. doi: 10.1007/s10654-017-0273-8

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC]. (2017). QuickStats: Suicide Rates for Teens Aged 15–19 Years, by Sex – United States, 1975–2015. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 66(30), 816. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6630a6

Chen, J.-C., & Samet, J. M. (2017). Air pollution and suicide risk: another adverse effect of air pollution? European Journal of Epidemiology, 32(11), 943-946. doi: 10.1007/s10654-017-0329-9

Comisión Nacional de Agua y Saneamiento [CONAGUA]. (2020). Información Estadística Climatológica. Retrieved from https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/informacion-climatologica/informacion-estadistica-climatologica

Crnek-Georgeson, K., Wilson, L. A., & Page, A. (2017). Factors influencing suicide in older rural males: a review of Australian studies. Rural & Remote Health, 17(4), 4020. doi: 10.22605/RRH4020

Dixon, P. G., Sinyor, M., Schaffer, A., Levitt, A., Haney, C. R., Ellis, K. N., & Sheridan, S. C. (2014). Association of weekly suicide rates with temperature anomalies in two different climate types. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 11(11), 11627-11644. doi: 10.3390/ijerph111111627

Fadel, S. A., Boschi-Pinto, C., Yu, S., Reynales-Shigematsu, L. M., Menon, G. R., Newcombe, L., … Jha, P. (2019). Trends in cause-specific mortality among children aged 5-14 years from 2005 to 2016 in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico: an analysis of nationally representative mortality studies. The Lancet, 393(10176), 1119-1127. doi: 10.1016/ S0140-6736(19)30220-X

Fernández-Niño, J. A., Astudillo-García, C. I., Bojorquez-Chapela, I., Morales-Carmona, E., Montoya-Rodriguez, A. A., & Palacio-Mejia, L. S. (2016). The Mexican cycle of suicide: A National Analysis of Seasonality, 2000-2013. PloS One, 11(1), e0146495. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0146495

Fountoulakis, K. N., Chatzikosta, I., Pastiadis, K., Zanis, P., Kawohl, W., Kerkhof, A. J., ... Bech, P. (2016). Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012. Annals of General Psychiatry, 15(1), 1-6. doi: 10.1186/s12991-016-0106-2

Gaxiola-Robles, R., Celis de la Rosa, A. J., Labrada-Martagón, V., Díaz-Castro, S. C., & Zenteno-Savín, T. (2013). Incremento de la temperatura ambiental y su posible asociación al suicidio en Baja California Sur (BCS) 1985-2008. Salud Mental, 36(5), 421-427. doi: 10.17711/SM.0185-3325.2013.053

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía [INEGI]. (2001). Estadísticas de mortalidad Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Infor-mática INEGI. Retrieved from http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/Proyectos/registros/vitales/consulta.asp?c=11800&s=est23

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía [INEGI]. (2018). Estadísticas a propósito del día mundial para la prevención del suicidio. Retrieved from https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/aproposito/2018/suicidios2018_Nal.pdf

Jee, H.-J., Cho, C.-H., Lee, Y. J., Choi, N., An, H., & Lee, H.-J. (2017). Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 135(3), 219-227. doi: 10.1111/acps.12676

Kalkstein, A. J., Belorid, M., Dixon, P. G., Kim, K. R., & Bremer, K. A. (2019). Seasonal Variations in Temperature–Suicide Associations across South Korea. Weather, Climate, and Society, 11(4), 731-739. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0019.1

McMichael, A. J., Woodruff, R. E., & Hales, S. (2006). Climate change and human health: present and future risks. The Lancet, 367(9513), 859-869. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3

Muccino, E., Crudele, G. D. L., Gentile, G., Marchesi, M., Rancati, A., & Zoja, R. (2015). Suicide drowning in the non-coastal territory of Milan. International Journal of Legal Medicine, 129(4), 777-784. doi: 10.1007/s00414-014-1115-9

Page, L. A., Hajat, S., & Kovats, R. S. (2007). Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 191(2), 106-112. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.106.031948

Postolache, T. T., Manalai, P., Brenner, L. A., & Brundin, L. (2016). Inflammation and suicidal behavior. Advances in Biological Psychiatry, 30, 123-144. doi: 10.1159/000434746

Shah, A. (2007). The relationship between suicide rates and age: an analysis of multinational data from the World Health Organization. International Psychogeriatrics, 19(6), 1141-1152. doi: 10.1017/S1041610207005285

Shah, A. (2012). Suicide rates: age-associated trends and their correlates. Journal of Injury and Violence Research, 4(2), 79-86. doi: 10.5249/jivr.v4i2.101

Shah, A., & Coupe, J. (2009). A comparative study of elderly suicides in England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: trends over time and age-associated trends. International Psychogeriatrics, 21(3), 581-587. doi: 10.1017/S1041610209008515

Swade, C., & Coppen, A. (1980). Seasonal variations in biochemical factors related to depressive illness. Journal of Affective Disorders, 2(4), 249-255. doi: 10.1016/0165-0327(80)90026-9

Tonelli, L. H., Holmes, A., & Postolache, T. T. (2008). Intranasal immune challenge induces sex-dependent depressive-like behavior and cytokine expression in the brain. Neuropsychopharmacology, 33(5), 1038-1048. doi: 10.1038/sj.npp.1301488

World Health Organization [WHO]. (2018a, April 05). World Health Statistics data visualizations dashboard: Suicide. Geneva Switzerland: World Health Organization. Retrieved from http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.sdg.3-4-viz-2?lang=en

World Health Organization [WHO]. (2018b). Suicide. Geneva Switzerland: World Health Organization. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/suicide